The conflict between Israel and Iran is intensifying at an alarming rate, raising serious questions about whether the United States is preparing to step directly into the battlefield.
While the Trump administration has publicly expressed its commitment to a diplomatic solution regarding Iran's nuclear program, mixed signals and sudden military escalations have left analysts baffled. Just days ago, U.S. and Iranian representatives were expected to resume diplomatic talks. On June 12, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, affirming, "We are committed to diplomacy."
However, a dramatic turn came only 14 hours later — Israel launched a bombing campaign on Iranian territory. Trump then declared that Iran had missed a 60-day deadline he had previously set.
Two days later, on June 15, Trump added, "Israel and Iran must reach an agreement — and only with my help is that possible."
🔥 G7 Exit Fuels Speculation
On June 16, Trump left the G7 Summit in Canada earlier than scheduled, issuing a chilling message: "Iran must be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons. Everyone, evacuate Tehran immediately!" Though he later claimed his return to Washington wasn’t about war discussions but “something even bigger,” the ambiguity only deepened concerns.
Despite stating that the U.S. is “not involved in any attack on Iran,” Trump’s conflicting comments have left experts questioning Washington's real stance.
🧠 Analysts Weigh In
Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association noted, "Trump made it clear he supports diplomacy over military action — even resisting pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu." She suggested Israel may have feared a successful diplomatic deal would undermine its strategic goals.
Richard Nephew, a former U.S. National Security Council official and Columbia University professor, echoed this sentiment, saying Trump’s gradual shift toward negotiations was a major concern for Israel.
Iranian historian Ali Ansari of the University of St. Andrews believes the U.S. was aware of Israel’s intent to attack — even if the timing came as a surprise. He added, "America’s position was that Israel should lead the operation independently."
💣 Attack on Natanz Nuclear Site
Israel’s strike on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility caused significant damage to above-ground sections that enriched uranium to 60% — far beyond civilian use but still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade material.
According to the IAEA, underground sections may also have been hit, though Iran’s highly fortified Fordow facility, located beneath a mountain, remains intact.
Davenport noted that “only the U.S.’s 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb could destroy such deep bunkers,” which has not been handed over to Israel — yet.
Barbara Slavin from the Stimson Center added, "Israel needs U.S. weapons and assistance to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure."
🇺🇸 U.S. Military Movements Raise Eyebrows
Following Israel’s offensive, the U.S. deployed mid-air refueling aircraft and the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Washington also announced more fighter jets would be sent soon, hinting at deeper military involvement.
Ali Ansari remarked, "Trump may want to claim credit for any success in the conflict, potentially pulling the U.S. into the war — but this could push Iran to retreat or fight harder, depending on the narrative."
🛑 Congress Tries to Prevent War
Senator Tim Kaine introduced a War Powers Resolution on June 16, aiming to limit military actions without congressional approval. "We must avoid unnecessary war with Iran — it’s vital to national security," Kaine stated.
⚖️ Diplomacy or War?
Former President Barack Obama championed diplomacy with the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, allowing IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities. But Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement shifted dynamics drastically.
Iran responded by enriching uranium to 60%. In 2023, IAEA found uranium particles at 83.7% in Fordow — dangerously close to weapons-grade.
Richard Nephew warned, "We're now paying the price of burning the deal. When military solutions are prioritized, nations feel the only way to protect themselves is by building nuclear weapons."
Davenport added, “Even if Iran’s government changes, nuclear ambitions may remain — democracy is no guarantee against the nuclear path.”
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