If the United States intervenes militarily in Iran over the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, it could strategically benefit both China and Russia — at least that’s what Alom Saleh, a researcher at the Australian National University, believes. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Saleh explained that direct U.S. involvement would play into the hands of these two global powers.
Saleh told Al Jazeera that one of China's primary concerns is to keep Iran's oil pipelines open and ensure stable regional trade and investment. However, U.S. military action against Iran would indirectly work in China's favor.
“Iran is not Yemen's Houthis, nor is it the Taliban in Afghanistan. It’s also not like Syria or Iraq,” Saleh said.
“If the United States intervenes, both China and Russia would quietly celebrate. They would want the U.S. bogged down in an open-ended war with a relatively strong and determined nation.”
He also noted that if a full-blown U.S. intervention happens, Beijing and Moscow would lend informal support to Iran to keep it going as long as possible — hoping to prolong the conflict so that America stays entangled in the region for years.
However, Saleh clarified that neither China nor Russia would join the war directly. Instead, they would aim to stretch the fight, ensuring that Washington's attention and resources remain consumed by the Middle East. This would enable them to pursue their own strategic goals elsewhere without serious U.S. interference.
This analysis signals a complex geopolitical game at play, where a U.S. military intervention in Iran could profoundly shift the balance of power — allowing rival nations like China and Russia to gain leverage without stepping onto the battlefield themselves.
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